In recent months maritime drones have hit the news headlines as they are increasingly deployed in conflict hot-spots around the world’s seas. The war in Ukraine, tensions in the ocean around China, and most recently armed attacks on shipping in the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea have all been characterised by the use of various types of drones – uncrewed aircraft, drone boats, unpowered marine ‘glider’ craft, and underwater vehicles.
Our new study, ‘The Next Wave’, investigates the development and use of maritime drones and the likely future implications of their use in combat. While uncrewed boats have long been used in warfare – with the US Navy first using uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs) for mine clearance in the 1990’s – today, maritime drones are used by an increasing number of states and non-state groups. This study reviews the reasons why, summarizes developments by the major military powers and the UK, and examines a set of case studies to identify how drones have been used during different types of conflict at sea.
Why drones at sea?
Maritime drones are a fraction of the cost of a conventional destroyer or submarine and represent a new vision of naval warfare that exchanges small numbers of high-value military assets for large numbers of cheaper, flexible, and simpler platforms which, working together, have a greater overall capability. In this vision, platforms can be modular, able to carry a number of payloads such as weapons, sensors, or smaller drones depending on the mission, and work as a connected network using artificial intelligence computing methods to stay in touch with other members of the fleet and with human controllers. An adversary would be overwhelmed with a multitude of small targets instead of a few large warships.
Drones can gather information about the ocean more cheaply than larger crewed vessels, and may also be able to reach areas that would be inaccessible for a larger ship. They are not bounded by the physiological limitations of human personnel and can undertake assignments that humans find demanding, such as deep diving or an extended submarine mission. They are also more easily able to loiter undetected than a larger ship, allowing data to be collected over a longer time period, and can also allow potentially dangerous objects to be examined remotely, reducing risks.
Within the world’s vast oceans, certain locations are particularly strategically important for both military and civilian purposes. These include the Arabian Gulf, the Red Sea, areas around disputed islands in the South and East China Seas, the Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap, the Baltic Sea and the English Channel. These areas often represent choke points and are both crowded with marine traffic and focal points for concentrations of underwater infrastructure. Drone networks are an attractive option for military planners when undertaking surveillance and reconnaissance operations in such areas.
Military development of maritime drones
The world’s major military powers are all keen to develop drones for use in warfare, recognising the military potential of new technologies, and have all begun research and investment into next-generation weaponry and technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and uncrewed and autonomous systems. China, Russia and the US and its NATO allies have a highly competitive relationship in these fields, and are actively developing such capabilities, including systems for use in the maritime domain, with Russia lagging somewhat behind China and the US.
Like the larger powers, the UK is keen to exploit the potential of uncrewed and autonomous technology for military purposes. The Royal Navy sees maritime autonomous systems as a major component of its future fleet, operating on and under the sea and in the air on both front line logistics and support tasks. To date, the UK has used uncrewed technologies to undertake routine tasks such as survey work and dangerous operations such as minesweeping, and in the longer term it has the aims of automating and roboticising many of the roles of its capital ships and equipping them with uncrewed aerial, surface, and undersea vehicles to contribute to a low cost weaponised sensor network. The systems currently deployed by the UK are still mainly small scale and / or experimental system and the sums of money involved have been relatively modest. Read more
In the seeming absence of any political will at the international level to control the export and use of armed drones, their proliferation continued unabated during the first half of 2021.
