New data from Drone Wars UK shows that more than forty states now operate large ‘Predator-type’ armed drones, with twenty-two countries having acquired these armed drones since the beginning of 2021, more than doubling the previous number of operators.
A full list of countries that possess MALE armed drones together with details of the types of drones they operate, which countries are likely to become operators in the near future and a short narrative report on each country is available on our ‘Who Has Armed Drones?’ page.
For the first time our data shows that more countries have used these armed drones to undertake strikes within their own borders (15) than for strikes against targets within other states (12). A number of new users including Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Mali have caused significant civilian casualties in drone strikes over the past 12 months.
While the use of smaller ‘suicide’ or one-way attack drones has come to the fore in 2023, particularly for their use in Ukraine and the Red Sea, the larger re-usable systems, known as medium altitude, long endurance (MALE) drones and typified by the US Reaper and Turkish Bayraktar TB2, continues to spread. Turkey is now the main exporter of such systems with fifteen countries gaining armed drone capability for the first time from Turkey since the beginning of 2021. A further dozen countries are likely to gain the capability in the near future.
Proliferation leads to civilian casualties
Of the 22 countries that have acquired MALE armed drones since the beginning of 2021, 12 are involved in ongoing internal or external armed conflicts, while a further 7 are states which have simmering tensions with neighbouring states or are repressive regimes. At least six of the states that have acquired armed drones since 2021 have already used them to launch strikes with a number of these causing civilian casualties. While Le Monde called Africa ‘the new playground for drone exporters’ with Turkish companies winning multi-million dollar contracts, civilians on the ground continue to pay a high price.
Ethiopia: Since Ethiopia was confirmed to have acquired armed drones in 2021, there have been multiple reports of drone strikes by Ethiopian armed forces causing civilian casualties in the ongoing internal conflict. A December 2022 report by local journalists detailed a number of strikes in which large numbers of civilians were killed during 2022, while a strike in August 2023 reportedly killed 26 civilians. According to a UN report, an Ethiopian army drone strike hit a primary school in the Wadera district on 6 November 2023, resulting in the deaths of seven people, including three teachers. A few days later on 9 November, a drone strike hit a bus station in the town of Waber, claiming the lives of 13 civilians who were waiting to depart. On both occasions, the UN says, Amhara militia were said to be operating nearby.
Mali: Mali’s Minister of Defence announced in December 2022 that the country had acquired armed Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkey with video of the drones shown on Malian TV. In November 2023. Malian armed forces said that it had carried out a drone strike on terrorist positions in a former UN base in Kidal. However, officials from the town said 14 civilians including a number of children and the deputy Mayor were killed in the strike. Elmaouloud Ramadane, spokesperson for Tuareg groups told Reuters: “There were three drone strikes on the (former UN) base and one hit a group of children that were collecting objects from the camp.” In January 2024, Turkey delivered more TB2 drones to Mali.
Burkina Faso: The Burkinabe armed forces took delivery of five Bayraktar armed drones from Turkey in April and May 2022. Just a few months later in August 2022, the armed forces admitted that at least 30 civilians were mistakenly killed in an airstrike which locals said was carried out by a drone. In November 2023, video footage from TB2 drones tracking and striking at insurgents trying to take over the town of Djibo near the Malian border was released.
In January 2024, Human Rights Watch released a report detailing that three Burkina Faso military drone strikes had killed at least 60 civilians and injured scores more at two crowded markets and a packed funeral in Burkina Faso and Mali between August and November 2023. For one of the strikes, HRW examined video footage shown on TV of a strike said to be on Islamic militants near the northern town of Bouro. However locals said the strike hit the weekly Thursday market. Human Rights Watch reviewed a satellite image taken on a Thursday five months earlier showing people and animals gathered at that same location. Local residents said that at least 28 men were killed and many wounded.
Nigeria: While Nigeria first acquired armed drones from China in 2015, it also acquired armed Bayraktar TB2 drones in 2022. In 2023, two serious incident civilian casualty incidents occurred with the victims saying strikes were carried out by armed drones. The first in January 2023, killed at least 39 civilians with the Nigerian armed forces admitting to HRW that it carried out the strike. The second occurred in December 2023 where 85 people taking part in a Muslim religious festival were killed. The armed forces apologised for the killings and President Bola Tinubu ordered an investigation.
Drone proliferation being overlooked
The increasing proliferation and use of armed drones is largely being overlooked as the world focuses on the appalling violence in Ukraine and Gaza. Turkey, China and Iran are supplying deadly drones to counties already engaged in armed conflicts or in a state of serious tension with their neighbours. As always it is civilians who pay the price. Apart from an important side event at the UN General Assembly First Committee in October 2023 there is little sign of international attention being paid to the proliferation of armed drones. It is high time this changed.