The Strategic Defence Review and Drone Warfare: Questioning a Dangerous Consensus

Chris Cole

While there appears to be a consensus between mainstream political parties, officials and defence commentators that a significant increase in spending on drone and military AI systems would be a positive development, there are serious questions about the basis on which this decision is being made and the likely impact on global security.

New military technology in general, and uncrewed systems in particular, are being presented by politicians and the media as a quick and simple, cost-effective way for the armed forces to increase ‘mass’ and ‘lethality’ without having to procure hugely expensive kit that can take years to produce. Drones are also seen as an alternative to deploying troops in significant numbers at a time when recruitment has become increasingly difficult.

However, far from aiding security, increased spending on drones, autonomous weapons and other emerging military technology will simply lead to a further degrading of UK and global security. Remote and autonomous military systems lower the threshold for the use of armed force, making it much easier for state and non-state groups alike to engage in armed attack. Such systems encourage war as the first rather than the last option.

KEY QUESTIONS

Does the war in Ukraine really demonstrate that ‘drones are the future’?
  • It seems to be taken for granted that the ongoing war in Ukraine has demonstrated the effectiveness of drone and autonomous warfare and that therefore the UK must ‘learn the lesson’ and increase funding for such technology. However, while drones are being used extensively by both Russia and Ukraine – and causing very substantial numbers of casualties – it is far from clear that they are having any strategic impact.
  • Larger drones such as the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 operated by Ukraine – hailed as the saviour of  Ukraine at the beginning of the war  – and Russia’s Orion MALE armed drone have virtually disappeared above the battlefield as they are easily shot down. Larger one-way attack (sometimes called ‘suicide’) drones are being fired at each other’s major cities by both sides and are causing considerable harm. While these strikes are mainly for propaganda effect, again it is not clear if this will change the outcome of the war.
  • Short range surveillance/attack drones are being used very extensively on the battlefield, and the development in particular of First Person View (FPV) drones to carry out attacks on troops and vehicles has been a significant development. However, counter measures such as electronic jamming means that thousands of these drones are simply lost or crash. In many ways, drone warfare in Ukraine has become a long-term ‘cat and mouse’ fight between drones and counter-drone measures and this is only likely to continue.
Is ‘cutting edge military technology’ a silver bullet for UK Defence?
  • The capabilities of future military systems are frequently overstated and regularly underdelivered. Slick industry videos showcasing new weapons are more often than not the product of graphic designers creative imaginings rather than real world demonstrations of a new capability.
  • Click to open the briefing

    The hype surrounding trials of so-called ‘swarming drones’ is a good example. There is a world of difference between a ‘drone swarm’ in its true, techno-scientific meaning and a group of drones being deployed at the same time. A true drone swarm sees individual systems flying autonomously, communicating with each other and following a set of rules without a central controller. While manufacturers and militaries regularly claim they are testing or trialling ‘a drone swarm’, in reality they just operating a group of drones at the same time controlled by a group of operators.

  • While there have been considerable developments in the field of AI and machine learning over the past decade, the technology is still far from mature. Anyone using a chatbot, for  example, will quickly discover that there can be serious mistakes in the generated output. Trusting data generated by AI systems in a military context, without substantial human oversight and checking, is likely to result in very serious errors. The need for ongoing human oversight of AI systems is likely to render any financial of human resources saving from using AI virtually redundant.
Will funding new autonomous drones actually keep us safe?
  • Perhaps the key question about plans to heavily invest in future military AI and drone warfare is whether it will actually keep the UK safe. Just over a decade ago, armed drones were the preserve of just three states: the US, the UK and Israel. Today, many states and non-state groups are using armed drones to launch remote attacks, resulting in large numbers of civilian casualties. In essence, as they enable both states and non-state groups to engage in armed attack with little or no risk to themselves, remote and autonomous drones lower the threshold for the use of armed force, making warfare much more likely.
  • Given the global proliferation of such technology, it seems inevitable that any new developments in drone warfare funded by the UK over the next few years will inevitable proliferate and be used by other state and non-state groups. In many ways, it seems only a matter of time before drone warfare comes to the UK.
  • Rather than funding the development of new lethal autonomous drones, the UK should be at the forefront of efforts to curb and control the use of these systems, working with other states, NGOs and international experts to put in place globally accepted rules to control their proliferation and use.
Is the development and use of autonomous weapons inevitable?
  • Although the realm of science fiction until relatively recently, plans are now being developed by a number of states, including the UK, to develop and deploy lethal autonomous weapon systems. It is highly likely that the first fully autonomous weapons will be a drone-based system.
  • The real issue here is not the development of AI itself, but the way it is used. Autonomy raises a wide range of ethical, legal, moral and political issues relating to human judgement, intentions, and responsibilities. These questions remain largely unresolved and there should therefore be deep disquiet about the rapid advance towards developing AI weapons systems.
  • While some argue the inevitability of the development of these systems, there are a range of measures which could be used to prevent their development including establishing international treaties and norms, developing confidence-building measures, introducing international legal instruments, and adopting unilateral control measures. Given how much we have seen drone warfare spread and create global insecurity over the past decade, now is the time for the UK to be fully involved in international discussions to control the development of lethal fully autonomous weapon systems.

Read more →

RAF’s new armed drone given approval to fly freely over UK  

Chris Cole
Protector RG1 flying over RAF Waddington. Crown Copyright.

The UK’s Military Aviation Authority (MAA) has issued ‘Military Type Certification’ to the UK’s new ‘Protector’ armed drone, meaning that it is now free to fly within UK airspace, including over populated areas.

Previously, for safety reasons, Protector and other large uncrewed systems such as the Protector’s predecessor, the Reaper, were only allowed to fly in segregated airspace, with other aircraft excluded.  Although large military drones are spreading rapidly, as Drone Wars has documented they continue to tumble out of the skies for a whole variety of reasons.

The UK is the first country to certify a large drone to fly freely in unsegregated airspace and General Atomics, the manufacturer of the drone – which they call MQ-9B SkyGuardian rather than UK designation of ‘Protector RG1’– were delighted as it has huge implications for their sales.  The company’s press release called it “a seminal achievement.”  A key element of the  approval, alongside “rigorous testing”, was apparently the ‘rigid separation’ of mission software from flight critical software.

Protector flights in the UK

The Protector has been undertaking a short series of test flights around RAF Waddington, the home of UK drone warfare, over the past few weeks. The Aviationist noted two tests in the past week which were of the longest duration so far, including one which saw the drone fly to RAF Marham before taking off and returning to Waddington.  RAF Marham is the nominated diversion airfield for the drone.

General Atomics reported that 10 of the 16 Protector drones ordered had now been delivered to the UK but it is not clear if these are all at RAF Waddington  as previous drones that have ‘been delivered’ to the RAF remained in the US for testing and trials.  The UK is increasingly secretive about its drone operations and exact details about when Protector is to come into service have been given vaguely as ‘by the end of 2025’.  Reaper is also expected to exit service by the end of the year.

Protector test and training flights are now likely to expand both in number and in range, including flights to launch weapons at Holbeach Air Weapons Range, near Boston in The Wash. Protector carries the Paveway IV guided bomb and Brimstone 3 missiles.

The Ministry of Defence has always been clear that Protector will also be available to support counter-terrorism operations within the UK and undertake Military Aid to Civilian Authorities (MACA) tasks such as assisting HM Coastguard with search and rescue missions.  Read more →

Companies vying for share of purloined aid budget as UK plans to spend big on drones and military tech

Chris Cole
Keir Starmer visits drone factory. Credit: Reuters

While behind-the-scenes wrangling on the final details of the latest Strategic Defence Review continue, the overall message is crystal clear: the UK intends to significantly increase military spending. To enable this there have already been a number of government decisions designed to make funds available, in particular, for new weapons technology and programmes.

In November, the Defence Secretary announced he was cutting a number of ‘outdated’ military programmes (including the infamous Watchkeeper drone) to make funds available for new military technology. The Chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Tony Radakin argued that “accelerating the disposal of legacy equipment is the logical approach to focus on the transition to new capabilities that better reflect changing technology and tactics.”

In a more ambitious money grab, PM Kier Starmer announced that he was cutting the UK’s aid budget to help increase military spending to 2.5% of GDP and said he would use the released funds to “accelerate the adoption of cutting-edge capabilities.” Starmer argued that the aid cuts would mean an extra £13.4bn military spending per year from 2027. Others, however, argued that in real terms, the increase would be around £6bn per year. Many noted that whatever the boost to UK military spending, the cuts would significantly harm the worlds poorest people.

Finally, there has been a concerted effort to ensure that banks, pension funds and other big investors – who have accepted that military companies should be excluded from ethical investment portfolios – get back in line and ensure that military companies have full access to all their funds. The government it seems, is adamant that private as well as public funds are made available to such companies. Not unrelated to this move, universities are also coming under pressure to crackdown on opposition to military company recruitment on campus.

Which drones companies are likely to benefit?

A number of newer and older military companies are likely to benefit from the coming increase in military spending and, in anticipation, we have seen a surge in the stock prices of many of the companies involved. While drones and related technology are only one part of the increase in military spending, a number of companies in this area are likely to benefit.

Helsing

Helsing is a new company set-up by three AI experts in Berlin in 2021. Its website states that it was “founded to put ethics at the core of defence technology development” and insists that ”artificial intelligence will be the key capability to keep liberal democracies from harm”

HX-2 one way attack drones stocked at Hesling factory
HX-2 one way attack drones stocked at Hesling factory

One of the company’s first products is the HX-2 attack drone. HX-2 is a meter long, electrically propelled X-wing, one-way attack drone with up to 100 km range. The company says that on-board AI enables it to resist jamming and that multiple HX-2 can be assembled into swarms. The drone has been designed to be mass-producible and Helsing announced in February 2025 that It had set-up the first of what it is calling its ‘resilience factories’ in southern Germany to mass produce 6,000 of the drones for Ukraine. Jane’s reported in December 2024 that Helsing was to set up a factory in the UK and it is highly likely that the UK will order the HX-2 drone.

Anduril

Palmer Luckey with Andruil's Fury drone
Palmer Luckey with Andruil’s Fury drone

Although a little older than Helsing, Anduril too is a relatively new player to the defence industry. Co-founded in 2017 by technology entrepreneur Palmer Luckey, the company (named after a sword in Lord of the Rings) and its co-founder have been subject to an extra-ordinary amount of adulatory media coverage.

The UK has already awarded Anduril a number of contracts including a £30m deal in March 2025 to supply the Altius 600m and Altius 700m drones to Ukraine and it too announced this week plans to open a drone factory in the UK. Anduril is one of two companies left in the competition to supply the US air force with new category of drone called Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). The UK too wants to acquire these type of drones to work in conjunction with its F-35 fighter aircraft and future Tempest combat aircraft. Anduril also works closely with another US AI tech company, Palantir, in development of AI-enabled intelligence and ‘battle-management’ systems similar in vein to the Israel ‘Lavender’ and ‘Gospel’ systems. This too is an area that the UK is likely to want to fund.

BAE Systems

Image of model of BAe's new drone concept
BAES System’s latest concept model for the UK’s ‘Autonomous Collaborative Platform’

The opposite of a newcomer, BAE Systems has a long history of being the main beneficiary of UK military spending. Research by CAAT showed that between 2012 and 2023, the company had more meetings with British prime ministers than any other private company.

With a track record of being involved with the development of drones including the UK’s experimental Taranis combat drone, BAE Systems is keen to position itself at the forefront of development of uncrewed autonomous systems. It has showcased its designs for the UK’s Autonomous Collaborative Platforms (ACP) programme – the UK’s equivalent to the US Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) – and it continue to trial is Phasa-35 High-altitude surveillance drones.

Alongside this, BAE has quietly bought up a number of smaller, niche military drone companies to acquire new designs and expertise from those companies – including Prismatic, Malloy Aeronautics and Callen-Lenz – and has signed an agreement with QinetiQ to collaborate on the development of drone technology.    Read more →

After Gaza ‘ceasefire’, Israel’s drone wars move to devastate the West Bank.

Cora Morris
IDF drone strike on car in Qabatiya, near Jenin, 2025

‘Operation Iron Wall’ sees renewed aerial strikes on civilian infrastructure and the displacement of as many as 40,000 West Bank Palestinians since 21st of January

Israeli occupation attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank have intensified heavily since the beginning of the ceasefire in Gaza, with drone strikes a primary tool of destruction in the territory. Announced on the 21st of January, two days after the ceasefire took formal effect, ‘Operation Iron Wall’ purports to protect Israeli settlers by targeting ‘Iran-backed’ West Bank militants, according to an IDF press release. However, the rate and scale of the attacks – which has included an onslaught of military bulldozers and tanks, all but emptying Jenin’s 24,000 person* refugee camp – mark a clear objective to make life in the West Bank unlivable. Palestinian commentators have alleged a ‘Gaza-ification’ of the territory, with heavy, ongoing damage to civilian infrastructure and a mounting death toll. As of the 4th of March, an estimated 40,000 people have been displaced from refugee camps across the West Bank now occupied by the IDF, with a statement from Israeli Minister of Defence Israel Katz on February 23rd that residents ‘would not be permitted to return’.

Evidence points to an increase in drone strikes in the West Bank even prior to the ceasefire in Gaza, with grave consequences for Palestinian life. Reporting by Al-Jazeera details a January 8th strike on a home in the town of Tammun, 13 kilometres northeast of Nablus, that killed 3 people, including 8 and 10-year-old siblings Reda and Humza Bsharat, as well as their 23-year-old relative. In a video interview, a family member described the attack as ‘a message from the occupation, that no-one is safe in their homes’. This sense – already felt sharply by West Bank Palestinians subject to regular surveillance, occupation intimidation, and settler violence – has become once again inescapable in the weeks since the renewed ‘operation’ began.

Using data extracted from social media posts and ACLED’s database, we estimate that to date at least 19 drone strikes to have hit Palestinian territories in the West Bank since the 21st of January – however, there is a strong likelihood that these accounts are not comprehensive, and that this estimate is conservative. Available evidence suggests these have mostly been concentrated around Jenin. However, other intensive targeting has taken place in Qabatiya, Tammun, and Tulkarm, towns and cities with similarly large numbers in densely-populated camps. In Jenin, the destruction of key infrastructure using drones and bulldozers began forcefully on the 21st, with a reported death toll of at least 8, and 35 wounded, in the city alone. Videos posted online claim to display drone strikes on al-Damaj, a neighbourhood in the camp, with explosions audible in the recordings of a smartphone from a nearby area.

Israeli Drone Strikes in the West Bank, Jan-Feb 2025
Date Location Description
21/01/25 Jenin refugee camp Reports of multiple strikes during the first day of Operation Iron Wall, including on the neighbourhood of al-Damaj.
21/01/25 Burqin Reports of a drone strike on a house in Burqin, west of Jenin. Casualties unknown.
24/01/25 Qatabiya Drone strike on a vehicle in Qabatiya, just south of Jenin. At least two people killed, with strike celebrated by IDF in an X post.
26/01/25 Balata camp, Nablus Drone strike on a cemetery in the Balata Camp, warning Palestinians that were in the cemetery to evacuate the area according to ACLED.. No casualties reported.
27/01/25 Nur Shams refugee camp, Tulkarm Drone strike on a vehicle in Nur Shams refugee camp, in Tulkarm, targeting Hamas fighters. X posts by the IDF celebrate the ‘elimination’ of Ayoub Abu Atiya, ‘along with another terrorist’.
29/01/25 Tammun Drone strike in Tammun, 13km northeast of Nablus, with reports of 10 people killed and one injured. IDF claimed they killed 10 Hamas and Katibat Tammun (PIJ) militants, while Defence For Children International criticised the killing of a 17-year-old boy, Jihad Naser Yousef Bani Matar.
31/01/25 Jenin Several reported strikes in Jenin led to multiple deaths. A first drone strike, on a street, killed 16-year old Ahmad al-Saadi, and wounded two others critically. An hour and a half later, Ahmad’s older brother, Tamam, was killed, alongside 32 year old Nour Al-Saadi, thought to be wanted by Israel. The two were travelling by motorcycle from the hospital where Tammun worked.
31/01/25 Qabatiya A drone strike on a car in Qatabiya killed two people inside – named as Abdul Hadi Alawneh, Saleh Zakarneh – while a child, 15-year-old Diaa al-Din Ahmed Omar Saba’neh succumbed to injuries from the strike two weeks later on the 15th of February. His father was also injured.
31/01/25 Al Yamun A further strike in Al-Yamun, near Jenin, targeted a house, causing a large fire according to ACLED. No casualties were reported.
05/02/25 Tammun ACLED reports four drone strikes on areas in Tammun injured one person, with no further information available.
07/02/25 Jenin Drone strikes hit houses in Jenin according to ACLED, with no information on casualties available.
07/02/25 Tammun A drone strike hit an area in Tammun, with at least one person injured.
13/02/25 Jenin An Israeli occupation drone targeted and destroyed a vehicle within Jenin refugee camp. No reported casualties.
14/02/25 Jenin An Israeli military drone bombed houses in Jenin camp, with no reported casualties.

As in Gaza, children and the elderly have not been spared in the IDF’s calculations of who constitutes a legitimate target of violence in the West Bank, including in directed drone strikes. US-based outlet Electronic Intifada reports that of the 16 children killed in the West Bank since the beginning of the year, at least half were killed by drones.  Read more →

Death on Delivery: New Report examines civilian harm from intensifying drone warfare across Africa

Cora Morris
Click to open report

Research by Drone Wars UK has revealed the extent of civilian harm caused by military drone strikes across African states, including Ethiopia, Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Somalia and Sudan. ‘Death on Delivery’, our latest report, highlights mounting civilian death tolls in states newly operating imported MALE-type armed drones across the continent, from manufacturers in Turkey, China, and Iran.

At an absolute minimum, it found, more than 943 civilians have been killed in at least 50 separate incidents between November 2021 and November 2024. Of the six states investigated, five have been verified as operating Bayraktar TB-2 drones produced by Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar, with several also operating Chinese Wing Loong II and Iranian Mohajer-6 armed drones. Most are engaged in ongoing domestic military campaigns against armed insurgent groups, but regularly fail to distinguish between civilians and combatants in their operations.

The report highlights a case study for each country, pointing to the grave consequences of drone warfare for local communities and the families of victims. In one incident in Ethiopia’s Amhara region, more than 85 civilians were killed in a drone strike on the village of Ch’obi, in October 2022. In another, in Nigeria, an ‘error’ of military intelligence killed at least 85 – and, according to some reports, as many as 125 – civilians gathered to celebrate the Islamic festival of Mawlud, in two misdirected drone strikes in December 2023. Throughout the report, numerous examples emerge of drone strikes in densely populated civilian areas, with little evidence to suggest precautions to mitigate civilian harm.

These cases show the urgent need for increased proliferation controls on armed drones, and the clear failures of responsibility of those exporting these weapons in providing them to governments with seemingly little intention of upholding international humanitarian law. The extent of civilian suffering demonstrated in this report should make clear the threat posed by the rapid expansion of drone warfare worldwide, facilitated by access to ever-cheaper weapons systems produced by irresponsible, profit-chasing manufacturers. Innocent civilians living with conflict, political instability and widespread insecurity now confront the added threat of drone attacks, rendering even the most basic facets of day-to-day life – visiting a market, or attending a place of worship – potentially deadly.

The report concludes with a set of recommendations, calling for drone-exporting states to conduct thorough investigations into civilian harm caused by their uncrewed systems, disclosing their findings publicly, and affirming a commitment to civilian protection. Given the significant civilian harm already caused, the international community should urgently establish and implement a new control regime to prevent further proliferation-related harm.

Our report also urges the UK government to work with other states, civil society, and victim groups to develop robust international controls on armed drone transfers and use. The UK should advocate for transparency, oversight, and accountability, including casualty recording and victim assistance, while explicitly condemning extrajudicial killings and affirming the applicability of international law to armed drone operations.

Online webinar  

On Wednesday 26th March 2025  we held an online webinar to examine the issues raised in the report.  Speakers were:

Cora Morris, co-author of the Death on Delivery report.  She joined Drone Wars in July 2024 and alongside her role at Drone Wars, she is a coordinator within Amnesty International’s Digital Verification Team, a research unit collating citizen evidence of human rights abuses worldwide. Elsewhere, she lectures in open-source investigation at the University of Cambridge’s Centre for Research Methods (CaRM).

Olatunji Olaigbe is a freelance journalist based in Nigeria. His work has been published by VICE, Al-Jazeera, Inkstick and The Record. His reporting often examines the underlying factors of societal issues and he was a winner of the International Organisation for Migration’s 2021 West and Central Africa Migration Journalism Awards.

Wim Zwijnenburg is a Humanitarian Disarmament Project Leader for the Dutch peace organisation PAX. His work focuses on emerging military technologies and their impact on how wars are being fought and consequences for arms proliferation. He is the author of the reports Does Unmanned Make Unacceptable, Armed & Dangerous, and Unmanned Ambitions.

Click to watch video recording of the webinar.

 

Armed Drone Proliferation: Continued Exports Leading to Civilian Casualties

Chris Cole

The number of states now operating armed MALE drones has risen to forty-eight according to data compiled by Drone Wars UK (see full data here). While operators insist that such systems enable them to conduct ‘precise’ and ‘pinpoint accurate’ strikes without risk to their own forces, evidence demonstrates that drone operations continue to cause significant numbers of civilian casualties (for examples from 2025 already see here, here and here).

New operators since our last update include Italy, Romania, Rwanda, Albania, Kenya, and The Maldives. However, due to the secrecy surrounding the deployment of these systems it is possible that other states may also be operating such drones.

Medium Altitude, Long Endurance (MALE) drones, typified by such as the US MQ-9 Reaper and Turkish Bayraktar TB2 are remote-controlled, reusable systems rather than the small ‘one-way attack’ drones – more akin perhaps to a missile – that are currently being used a great deal in Ukraine and receiving significant attention.

Selected armed MALE UAVs

Graphic: Drone Wars UK

While for many years only a handful of countries – including the US, Israel and the UK – operated these systems, over the past decade the number of states deploying them has increased hugely, with Turkey becoming the pre-eminent exporter.  Out of the 48 states that currently operate armed MALE drones, 23 (48%) first acquired them from Turkey, while an additional eight countries who already had the capability have also been supplied with additional armed drones by Turkey.

Alongside these current operators, a number of states have announced the signing of contracts with suppliers and are anticipated to begin operating armed drones in the near future.  These include Kuwait (2025), Angola (2025), Croatia (2026), Belgium (2026), and India (2029).

Turkey expanding drone warfare in Africa

While Turkey appears to be willing to sell its armed drones to almost anyone, it has particularly targeted African states with at least ten countries on the continent supplied since the beginning of 2022. Several of these states have used the drones to launch strikes at insurgent groups, aping the counterterror strategy of western states, and in doing so have also caused significant civilian casualties.  A forthcoming report, Death on Delivery,  (published on 10 March) will detail the use of armed drones in Africa over the past three years and lay bare the devastating toll of civilian casualties.

While the Bayraktar TB2 continue to be the mainstay of their drone export, Turkey have also begun to  sell  the larger and more deadly Akinci and Aksungur drones, primarily to countries already operating the Bayraktar.   In a significant move, Turkish company Baykar bought Italian UAV company Piaggio in December 2024. Read more →