Armed Drone Proliferation: Continued Exports Leading to Civilian Casualties

The number of states now operating armed MALE drones has risen to forty-eight according to data compiled by Drone Wars UK (see full data here). While operators insist that such systems enable them to conduct ‘precise’ and ‘pinpoint accurate’ strikes without risk to their own forces, evidence demonstrates that drone operations continue to cause significant numbers of civilian casualties (for examples from 2025 already see here, here and here).

New operators since our last update include Italy, Romania, Rwanda, Albania, Kenya, and The Maldives. However, due to the secrecy surrounding the deployment of these systems it is possible that other states may also be operating such drones.

Medium Altitude, Long Endurance (MALE) drones, typified by such as the US MQ-9 Reaper and Turkish Bayraktar TB2 are remote-controlled, reusable systems rather than the small ‘one-way attack’ drones – more akin perhaps to a missile – that are currently being used a great deal in Ukraine and receiving significant attention.

Selected armed MALE UAVs

Graphic: Drone Wars UK

While for many years only a handful of countries – including the US, Israel and the UK – operated these systems, over the past decade the number of states deploying them has increased hugely, with Turkey becoming the pre-eminent exporter.  Out of the 48 states that currently operate armed MALE drones, 23 (48%) first acquired them from Turkey, while an additional eight countries who already had the capability have also been supplied with additional armed drones by Turkey.

Alongside these current operators, a number of states have announced the signing of contracts with suppliers and are anticipated to begin operating armed drones in the near future.  These include Kuwait (2025), Angola (2025), Croatia (2026), Belgium (2026), and India (2029).

Turkey expanding drone warfare in Africa

While Turkey appears to be willing to sell its armed drones to almost anyone, it has particularly targeted African states with at least ten countries on the continent supplied since the beginning of 2022. Several of these states have used the drones to launch strikes at insurgent groups, aping the counterterror strategy of western states, and in doing so have also caused significant civilian casualties.  A forthcoming report, Death on Delivery,  (published on 10 March) will detail the use of armed drones in Africa over the past three years and lay bare the devastating toll of civilian casualties.

While the Bayraktar TB2 continue to be the mainstay of their drone export, Turkey have also begun to  sell  the larger and more deadly Akinci and Aksungur drones, primarily to countries already operating the Bayraktar.   In a significant move, Turkish company Baykar bought Italian UAV company Piaggio in December 2024.

Other exporters

Alongside Turkey, the US has signalled its willingness to export armed drones despite being a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) which limits export of these systems to that of being ‘exceptional’. Having supplied armed drones to UK (2007) and France (2019), over the past two years The Netherlands, Spain and Italy have also armed their US-supplied drones. In addition, the US has agreed to supply India and Taiwan with SkyGuardian drones but it is not clear at this stage if they will be armed.

While details about Iran’s MALE drone exports are hard to quantify, it is clear that they have exported such systems to parties engaged in armed conflicts where they have been used in Ethiopia, Sudan and, through Russia, Ukraine.

China’s MALE drone exports have tailed off in the wake of Turkey’s seizure of the market.  However it is developing  more advanced version of its Caihong (Rainbow) – abbreviated as ‘CH’ – and Wing Loong (Pterodactyl) series and a number of these more advanced models have entered service with the PLA and may begin to be exported in the future.

Proliferation controls urgently needed  

While some reap huge financial rewards from the spread of armed drones, civilians, as always, continue to pay a heavy price. Along with many other peace and human rights groups we are frustrated and angry that the international community are simply failing to address this situation.

While undoubtedly difficult in the current political climate, Drone Wars UK continues to urge diplomats, state parties, civil society and all people of goodwill to work together urgently to support initiatives to reduce and ultimately end the harm caused by the proliferation of armed drones.

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