Armed Drone Proliferation: Continued Exports Leading to Civilian Casualties

The number of states now operating armed MALE drones has risen to forty-eight according to data compiled by Drone Wars UK (see full data here). While operators insist that such systems enable them to conduct ‘precise’ and ‘pinpoint accurate’ strikes without risk to their own forces, evidence demonstrates that drone operations continue to cause significant numbers of civilian casualties (for examples from 2025 already see here, here and here).

New operators since our last update include Italy, Romania, Rwanda, Albania, Kenya, and The Maldives. However, due to the secrecy surrounding the deployment of these systems it is possible that other states may also be operating such drones.

Medium Altitude, Long Endurance (MALE) drones, typified by such as the US MQ-9 Reaper and Turkish Bayraktar TB2 are remote-controlled, reusable systems rather than the small ‘one-way attack’ drones – more akin perhaps to a missile – that are currently being used a great deal in Ukraine and receiving significant attention.

Selected armed MALE UAVs

Graphic: Drone Wars UK

While for many years only a handful of countries – including the US, Israel and the UK – operated these systems, over the past decade the number of states deploying them has increased hugely, with Turkey becoming the pre-eminent exporter.  Out of the 48 states that currently operate armed MALE drones, 23 (48%) first acquired them from Turkey, while an additional eight countries who already had the capability have also been supplied with additional armed drones by Turkey.

Alongside these current operators, a number of states have announced the signing of contracts with suppliers and are anticipated to begin operating armed drones in the near future.  These include Kuwait (2025), Angola (2025), Croatia (2026), Belgium (2026), and India (2029).

Turkey expanding drone warfare in Africa

While Turkey appears to be willing to sell its armed drones to almost anyone, it has particularly targeted African states with at least ten countries on the continent supplied since the beginning of 2022. Several of these states have used the drones to launch strikes at insurgent groups, aping the counterterror strategy of western states, and in doing so have also caused significant civilian casualties.  A forthcoming report, Death on Delivery,  (published on 10 March) will detail the use of armed drones in Africa over the past three years and lay bare the devastating toll of civilian casualties.

While the Bayraktar TB2 continue to be the mainstay of their drone export, Turkey have also begun to  sell  the larger and more deadly Akinci and Aksungur drones, primarily to countries already operating the Bayraktar.   In a significant move, Turkish company Baykar bought Italian UAV company Piaggio in December 2024. Read more

RAF’s new armed drones begin test and training flights over UK

Protector drone flying over RAF Waddington in February 2025
The UK’s new ‘Protector’ drone flying over RAF Waddington in Feb 2025. Credit: MoD

The RAF announced that its new armed drone, called SkyGuardian by other users but dubbed ‘The Protector’ by the UK, has begun regular test and training flights in the UK. At the same time, the UK has exercised an option to extend the life of its current Reaper drone fleet which were supposed to transition our of service by early 2024.

The UK ordered up to 26 new ‘Protector’ drones in October 2015 to replace the UK’s current fleet of armed Reaper drones. The new drones were supposed to be in service by 2018 but long delays and cost overruns – estimated to be more than £500m – has dogged the programme.  The MoD confirmed that four Protector drones have now been delivered to the UK.

Protector differs from its predecessor in that it can carry more weapons and fly further and for longer.  However the UK argues that the main advantage of the new drone is that it was built to standards that allowed it to be flown in civil airspace alongside other aircraft.

Rather than be based overseas as the UK’s current fleet of armed drones are, the new drone will be based at RAF Waddington in Lincolnshire and deploy directly for overseas operations from there.

However, the technology that allows uncrewed aircraft to supposedly fly safely in the same airspace as other aircraft has not yet been proved and current Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) rules means the drone must fly in segregated airspace, away from other aircraft.

Drone Wars has long argued that while the use of military armed drones has normalised, they continue to crash at a significant rate for a whole variety of reasons.

General Atomics advert showing a mock-up of the Protector drone flying over London.
General Atomics advert portraying a Protector drone flying over London.

Significantly, the new drone has been brought in with the understanding that it can also be used at times of crisis for operations within the UK under Military Aid to Civil Authorities (MACA) rules.  It is perhaps likely then that at a time of crisis, the UK’s armed drone could be deployed operationally over the UK.

Since 2023, the MoD has refused to disclose details of UK Reaper flights even thought it has done so previously for more than a decade.  It is likely that similar secrecy will surround Protector drone flights and sorties not only if they are deployed overseas but also if deployed within the UK.

Drone Wars Online Day Conference: Sat 22 Feb 2025

Drones are now rapidly proliferating around the globe enabling belligerents to kill at distance with virtual impunity. At the same time, military planners are pushing ahead with incorporating AI into military systems despite grave concerns about the development of autonomous weapons, while behind the scenes, a number of states now see space as a war-fighting domain and are gearing up for space war.

In conjunction with Leicester CND and to remember the wonderful Penny Walker, Drone Wars are a holding a one-day, online conference to inform and build our campaigning to challenge these developments. 

 

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US spy drones out of ‘RAF’ Fairford – public meeting and demonstration in January 2025

Drone Wars, together with Oxfordshire Peace Campaign and CND, will host an online public meeting and in-person demonstration in January 2025 to oppose flights of US Global Hawk and Reaper drones from RAF Fairford military base in Glos.

The US Air Force (USAF) has applied to the UK’s air regulator, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), to change airspace rules to allow RQ-4 Global Hawk and MQ-9 Reaper drones to fly regularly from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire.

In August 2024, a US Global Hawk drone flew into Fairford, conducted two sorties over the following days and then departed.  It appears these were two ‘demonstration’ flights to trial temporary air corridors.  Following a Post-Implementation Review, in which it was revealed that ten flights into Birmingham airport had to be diverted because of the drones flight, the CAA has ordered the USAF/MoD to investigate “mitigation strategies” to resolve the impact on Birmingham Airport.

According to one document submitted to the CAA, the “working assumption” by the USAF is that the corridors would be activated 2-3 times per week but they are “exploring activation periods that exceed these assumption, both in frequency and time periods of utilisation.”  The proposal is that the drones would take off and land overnight: “all activations will be between 1 hour after sunset and 1 hour before sunrise unless in extremis.”   While the application to fly Global Hawks from Fairford is on-going, the application to fly Reapers has been ‘paused’, likely till after Global Hawk flights have been approved,

Online public Meeting:  Wednesday 15th January, 7.00pm – 8.30pm

Join us online to learn more about these dangerous development
and its worrying consequences both locally and globally.

Please register here:  Eventbrite registration

Demonstration at RAF Fairford:  Saturday 25th January, 1pm, Main Gate

 UPDATE:  Protest will go ahead.  

Bring banners and placards, food for lunch, and dress appropriately for the weather.

Demonstration will be by the main gate  at corner of Horcott Road /Maine Street.
Postcode for Sat Nav: GL7 4DL

There will be parking for some cars at main gate with additional parking nearby (See below)

There are some spaces available on mini-bus from Oxford  £10/£5 low-waged.

Pick up point will be the Ashmolean Museum with minibus departing at 11.15 am.
To book a place email: oxonpeace@yahoo.co.uk  on first come/first served basis.

If you can make a donation to cover cost of transport we would be grateful.  Read more

Watchkeeper drones scrapped – but will any lessons be learnt?

On Wednesday 20 November, the Defence Secretary John Healey announced in the House of Commons that the UK was scrapping its entire fleet of Watchkeeper drones bringing to an end to the sorry saga of this drone programme.

Anyone who has been following the Drone Wars blog over the last 14 years will be well aware of the failings of Watchkeeper. Based on the Israeli Hermes 450 drone, Watchkeeper was built by a joint venture company (U-TacS) owned 50-50 by the Israeli company Elbit Systems and Thales UK.

While the UK’s armed Reaper drones are operated by the Royal Air Force, the unarmed watchkeepers were bought for the British Army with the intention of undertaking short-medium range surveillance in order to conduct artillery strikes.

Fifty-four of the drones were built under a 2004, £1bn contract which was supposed to see “world-class” drones, operated by the army in Afghanistan by mid-2010.  Long delays saw only four of the drones deployed to Afghanistan for four weeks in 2014, conducting around 140 hours of surveillance as British forces withdrew from Camp Bastion.

Since then, apart from one short deployment in the UK, the 50 plus Watchkeeper drones have either flown on training flight, mostly in the UK or Cyprus (despite being marketed as an all-weather system, it performs poorly in ‘adverse’ weather) or simply kept in storage.  The UK deployment was to support Border Force operations to curb refugees crossings the channel. According to responses to our FoI requests at the time, a total of 21 flights were conducted in September and October 2022.

Crashes of Watchkeeper drones

Date Type Tail No. Where Source Status
Nov 10, 2022 Watchkeeper N/A United States Press Destroyed
May 29, 2022 Watchkeeper N/A Off Cyprus Press Destroyed
Oct 14, 2020 Watchkeeper WK044 Cyprus Press Unknown
Jun 13, 2018 Watchkeeper N/A Aberporth Press Destroyed
Mar 24, 2017 Watchkeeper N/A Irish Sea Press Destroyed
Feb 3, 2017 Watchkeeper N/A Irish Sea Press Destroyed
Nov 2, 2015 Watchkeeper WK006 Salisbury Press Destroyed
Oct 16, 2014 Watchkeeper WH031 Aberporth FoI Withdrawn
Watchkeeper crashes: Aberporth 2014; off Cyprus coast 2022
Military Technophilia

While it would be fair to say that there have been particular problems with the Watchkeeper programme, the dominant narrative that sophisticated military technology is the answer to a wide array of political and security issues is also an important element here.  Read more

Drone Wars urges transparency and public oversight of UK military operations at Information Tribunal

Drone Wars team at the Tribunal

Drone Wars appeared before a two-day information tribunal this week seeking to overturn the decision of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) to end the release of statistical information on the use of Reaper drones and other armed aircraft on military operations.  This information has been a crucial way for the public and parliament to have oversight of UK military action and without the data, it will be much hard to hold the UK to account.

The MoD has been responding to our Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for statistical information since 2010.  In January 2023, the MoD abruptly ended the practice arguing that the information could not be provided due to exemptions provided under Section 23 (Security bodies) or Section 24 (National Security), and Section 26 (Defence) of the Act.

Section 23 and Section 24 are used as ‘alternatives’ to disguise which exemption is being relied upon, that is whether the information comes from or relates to Special Forces, the intelligence service or similar bodies, or whether it is needed to protect ‘national security’.

The hearing took place partly in open session with Drone Wars present, but it also went into closed session when we were excluded, in order to hear evidence in secret.

The MoD provided a witness statement from Group Captain Redican, Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff for Joint Air Force Component and someone with direct experience of Operation Shader in response to our appeal.  Although the full witness statement contains 50 numbered paragraphs, only 15 were visible to us, the rest was redacted.

Documents also disclosed to us in the run up to the Tribunal revealed that at an earlier stage of our appeal, the Information Commissioner had asked the MoD to provide it with evidence that disclosure of the statistics to Drone Wars had caused harm or prejudice to the UK.  The MoD wrote to the Information Commissioner:

“The information previously released cannot be directly linked to harm to UK forces in its current operating environment (predominantly Operation Shader) however it has revealed capability details for a system that is capable of use on global operations where the threat environment may be significantly different against a more sophisticated adversary.”

In his witness statement, Gp. Capt Redican stated:

“I am aware that the MoD has previously provided responses to similar requests issued by Mr Cole.  The MoD now seeks to withhold information which it was previously content to disclose.  This is due to the changing national and security context, detailed further below.” [note the following four paragraphs were redacted]

Asked to explain what he meant by the ‘changing national and security context’, Redican explained that following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UK was now preparing for ‘State on State’ warfare rather than use of armed force against non-state groups.  At the same time, he went on, the situation in the Middle East had changed since the beginning of Operation Shader, with Iran – which had previously engaged in the same task of opposing ISIS – but now, “was a major actor in that theatre, and their actions are contrary to British interests.”

Drone Wars strongly argued that the statistical data that we sought was simply not capable of providing insight into ‘techniques, tactics and procedures’ at the level of detail which could cause prejudice to the UK as claimed, but instead gave a broad overview which enabled public oversight.

MoD ‘drawing a line in the sand’

Redican argued that it was not about “the specifics of information”  but that “a line in the sand had to be drawn somewhere”.  He went on “at some point we have to set a new precedent. We are going to have to begin to protect our capabilities more and more.”  Read more