MALE performance anxiety: Technical problems and SAMs bring large drones down to earth

MQ-9 downed in Yemen, May 2024

We’ve added details of 25 more crashes of medium altitude long endurance (MALE) drones to our database since the last update in November 2023 – including details of three US drone crashes in 2023 that have only recently come to light.

Although the use of smaller ‘one-way attack’ drones has grown in prevalence alongside a huge rise in  the use of FPV drones in Ukraine, the larger MALE drones – as typified by the Reaper and Bayraktar – continue to be a mainstay for many militaries.  While many of the crashes of these systems are due to pilot error, mechanical/electrical failures or other technical problems, we have seen an increase in the number of these aircraft being shot down over the past year.

While it has been widely accepted over recent years that the current generation of MALE drones “are vulnerable in warfighting conflicts involving peer or near-peer adversary” as the MoD’s most recent strategy document on the issue put it (and hence arguing to “go beyond RPAS” to develop autonomous drones),  we have actually seen a significant number of these drones brought down to earth by non-state groups such as the Houthis and Hezbollah over recent months.

MALE drones recently shot down by Ansar Allah (Houthis)*
Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location
May 29, 2024 US intelligence? MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Marib Province, Yemen
May 16, 2024 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Marib province, Yemen
Apr 26, 2024 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Off coast of Yemen
Feb 19, 2024 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Off coast of Yemen
Nov 8, 2023 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Off coast of Yemen

*Note other downings have been claimed but not verified

MALE drones recently shot down by Hezbollah  
Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location
Jun 10, 2024 IDF Hermes 900 Mid-flight, shot down Southern Lebanon
Jun 1, 2024 IDF Hermes 900 Mid-flight, shot down Southern Lebanon
Apr 22,2024 IDF Hermes 450 Mid-flight, shot down Southern Lebanon
Apr 6, 2024 IDF Hermes 900 Mid-flight, shot down Lebanon
Feb, 26, 2024 IDF Hermes 450 Mid-flight, shot down Nabatieh, Lebanon
Nov 5, 2023 IDF Hermes 450 Mid-flight, shot down Nabatieh, Lebanon
MALE drones brought down by other non-state groups/States
Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location
Apr 29, 2024 UAE Wing Loong Mid-flight, shot down Shabwah, Yemen
Jan 18, 2024 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Diyala Province, Iraq
Oct 5, 2023 Turkish Air Force Anka-S Mid-flight, shot down Hasakah, Syria,

Alongside the fact that these drones are increasing vulnerable to ground launch missile attacks, there continues to be a significant amount of crashes due to technical issues or pilot error. Read more

Accident waiting to happen: UK opens skies to large military drones as crashes continue

‘Protector’ drone flying from RAF Waddington (Credit; RAF)

As the UK begins to open its airspace to medium altitude, long endurance (MALE) drones for the first time, at least 20 crashes of this type of drone have occurred during 2023. See latest update of our Drone Crash database for full details. It is highly likely that other crashes have occurred that have not been publicly reported.

In November 2023, the RAF began flying its new ‘Protector’ drone (a new version of the Reaper)  from RAF Waddington as part of a short test programme after receiving permission from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). The MoD has submitted plans to be allowed to fly drones from RAF Waddington on a permanent basis from Spring 2024.  Meanwhile the US Air Force have submitted plans to the CAA to fly US Global Hawk drones from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire.  It has put an application to fly US Reaper drones from the base on hold, presumably until a decision is made on the Global Hawk flights.

There are now a wide variety of drones used by the military – from small hand-held surveillance systems through exploding so-called ‘suicide drones, to enormous solar powered systems flying at the edge of space. However, MALE drones like the Predator, Reaper and Bayraktar remain the workhorse of military attack drones but due to a variety of reasons, they continue to regularly crash

US Crashes

At least four MQ-9 Reapers and one MQ-1 Gray Eagle have crashed during the year according to media reports. Details are scant as the US has grown increasingly secretive about  such occurrences with USAF ‘mishap’ data not updated since 2021. Alongside these crashes, a US Reaper drone was downed due to a collision with  Russia aircraft over the Black Sea in March, while a US Reaper was shot down off the coast of Yemen  by Houthi rebels in November.

Date Operator Type Phase/details Location / Report
Nov 18,2023 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper (?) Mid-flight Off coast Somaliland
Aug 22, 2023 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing Kanoya, Japan
May 15,2023 US CBP MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Arizona, US
Apr 22, 2023 US Army MQ-1 Gray Eagle Mid-flight Kirkuk, Iraq
Feb, 4, 2023 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Northern Mali

Bayraktar TB-2 Crashes

At least six Bayraktar TB-2 drones have crashed during 2023.  Two of these occurred after Ukrainian operators lost control of the drones and had them shot down.  Bayraktar’s operated by Burkina Faso and Mali also crashed during the year while Turkish Bayraktar’s operating against Kurdish groups also crashed in Iraq.  Meanwhile the US Air Force shot down a Turkish Anka drone in Syria in October after US forces judged it to be threatening a US military position.  Read more