MALE performance anxiety: Technical problems and SAMs bring large drones down to earth

MQ-9 downed in Yemen, May 2024

We’ve added details of 25 more crashes of medium altitude long endurance (MALE) drones to our database since the last update in November 2023 – including details of three US drone crashes in 2023 that have only recently come to light.

Although the use of smaller ‘one-way attack’ drones has grown in prevalence alongside a huge rise in  the use of FPV drones in Ukraine, the larger MALE drones – as typified by the Reaper and Bayraktar – continue to be a mainstay for many militaries.  While many of the crashes of these systems are due to pilot error, mechanical/electrical failures or other technical problems, we have seen an increase in the number of these aircraft being shot down over the past year.

While it has been widely accepted over recent years that the current generation of MALE drones “are vulnerable in warfighting conflicts involving peer or near-peer adversary” as the MoD’s most recent strategy document on the issue put it (and hence arguing to “go beyond RPAS” to develop autonomous drones),  we have actually seen a significant number of these drones brought down to earth by non-state groups such as the Houthis and Hezbollah over recent months.

MALE drones recently shot down by Ansar Allah (Houthis)*
Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location
May 29, 2024 US intelligence? MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Marib Province, Yemen
May 16, 2024 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Marib province, Yemen
Apr 26, 2024 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Off coast of Yemen
Feb 19, 2024 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Off coast of Yemen
Nov 8, 2023 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Off coast of Yemen

*Note other downings have been claimed but not verified

MALE drones recently shot down by Hezbollah  
Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location
Jun 10, 2024 IDF Hermes 900 Mid-flight, shot down Southern Lebanon
Jun 1, 2024 IDF Hermes 900 Mid-flight, shot down Southern Lebanon
Apr 22,2024 IDF Hermes 450 Mid-flight, shot down Southern Lebanon
Apr 6, 2024 IDF Hermes 900 Mid-flight, shot down Lebanon
Feb, 26, 2024 IDF Hermes 450 Mid-flight, shot down Nabatieh, Lebanon
Nov 5, 2023 IDF Hermes 450 Mid-flight, shot down Nabatieh, Lebanon
MALE drones brought down by other non-state groups/States
Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location
Apr 29, 2024 UAE Wing Loong Mid-flight, shot down Shabwah, Yemen
Jan 18, 2024 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Diyala Province, Iraq
Oct 5, 2023 Turkish Air Force Anka-S Mid-flight, shot down Hasakah, Syria,

Alongside the fact that these drones are increasing vulnerable to ground launch missile attacks, there continues to be a significant amount of crashes due to technical issues or pilot error. Read more

Cameron further commits the UK to drone wars

David Cameron visits RAF Waddington and Coningsby - Credit BBC Radio Lincolnshire
David Cameron visits RAF Waddington and Coningsby – Credit BBC Radio Lincolnshire

A year after the UK doubled its drone fleet David Cameron visited RAF Waddington today to signal further commitment to – and spending on – drones and special forces.  The Prime Minster told the media that he had asked Defence Chiefs to look at how to do more to counter the threat posed by ISIS including spending more on “spy planes, drones and Special Forces.”  Cameron insisted that “in the last 5 years, I have seen just how vital these assets are in keeping us safe.”   He also, according to reports, suggested that the new Aircraft Carrier, Queen Elizabeth could be used to deploy drones in the future. Read more

UK-France declaration reveals new Reaper users club to rival European drones club

cameron and hollande5
Prime Minister David Cameron and President François Hollande

The final text of the Declaration on Security and Defence signed at the UK-France Summit last week has now been released and it reveals some details about future European drone projects.  The whole document is worth reading to get an understanding of where UK-French military co-operation is heading, for example:

“Based on our experience of leadership in foreign policy and defence, the UK and France believe it is essential to take a comprehensive approach to safeguarding European and trans-Atlantic security. This means tackling instability where it arises, preventing conflict, building the capacity of local forces and encouraging long-term economic development as the most effective means to guarantee both the stability of our neighbourhood, the safety of our citizens and the security of our wider interests.” (Para 5)

Read more

Shelling Out: New Reports Shows UK Has Spent £2bn on Drones

Drone Wars UK is today publishing a report that shows the UK Government has already spent over £2 billion purchasing, developing and researching drones and unmanned systems since 2007.

The report, Shelling Out: UK Government Spending on Unmanned drones, finds that the UK has spent £872m on five different drones that are currently in service with British forces, including £506m on the armed MQ-9 Reaper drone.  The UK has committed  a further £1,031m to developing new drones such as the Watchkeeper UAV and BAE Systems Taranis drone.  Finally the UK has funded £120m of research within UK universities and British defence companies looking at  unmanned systems.  This included £30m funding for the ASTRAEA programme to open up UK civil airspace to autonomous drones. Read more

Latest news on British drones

Some new information has emerged this week about future British drone programmes as BAE Systems held a media briefing at their Warton site to talk about their unmanned projects (our invitation was presumably lost in the post).

Picture of Taranis at Warton, released by BAE Systems.

According to the report by Defense News the first flight of BAE’s Taranis drone has been put back yet again until 2013.  Originally due to make its maiden flight in 2011, it was first delayed until early 2012 for “technical and other reasons” but now won’t fly at all this year.  Little has been heard about Taranis since it was unveiled to journalists (and protestors) in July  2010.  At the briefing journalists were allowed a distant peak at the drone as it sat in its hangar.  The UK government gave BAE Systems £40m of funding to develop unmanned combat systems in January 2012.

Perhaps surprisingly BAE told reporters that it was restarting its Mantis programme. Mantis is an armed medium altitude, long endurance (MALE) drone of similar size and shape to the Reaper.  Unlike Reaper, however Mantis is not remotely controlled but flies autonomously following a pre-programmed flight plan.  Mantis reached the end of its development phase when it flew for the first time at the Woomera test range in Australia in October 2009. Until now it has been suggested Mantis would simply form the basis of the proposed joint BAE-Dassault drone, Telemos.

BAE also said it hoped it would sign contracts with the UK and French government to further develop the Telemos drone  at the Farnborough airshow next month.  Telemos is BAE and Dassault’s offering to fill the UK-French ‘requirement’ for a new armed drone. However the change of administration in France has created uncertainty about the proposal as the newly appointed French defence minister announced in May that he was going back to “square one” on the plan to build a joint military drone.  

Elsewhere BAE continues to undertake work to in order to allow unmanned aircraft to fly within UK airspace.  As part of the ASTRAEA (Autonomous Systems Technology Related Airborne Evaluation & Assessment) programme, BAE will begin undertaking a series of test flights using a converted Jestream aircraft that can fly autonomously as an unmanned aircraft.   At least twenty test flights will take place over the Irish sea over the next six months.  BAE issued a glossy diagram to explain the work that they will be undertaking (large pdf here). 

The other main ‘British’ drone, Watchkeeper – which is being jointly developed by Israeli company Elbit Systems and Thales UK – seems to have missed out on being chosen by the French army as their new drone.  As part of the Anglo-French defence treaty, France was supposed to consider Watchkeeper for the contract but it was announced this week that they have instead bought further Sperwer MKII drones from French company, Sagem. Given this new contract and the fact that France have announced they are withdrawing early from Afghanistan it is unlikely that the French will want Watchkeeper as well.   For more info on Watchkeeper follow Wandering Raven’s blog and see this recent comprehensive article.

Finally, I can’t finish a post about British drones without mentioning the Reaper.  The Guardian reports this week that British reapers have now fired 281 weapons in Afghanistan up until the end of May 2012 and rightly points out that MoD continues to insist that only four civilians have been killed in these British drone strikes whilst at the same times maintaining that they cannot know how many people have been killed.  

 In the article, human rights lawyer Erica Gaston argues

“there has been little to no visibility on how drone targets are selected or reviewed. There have been many cases in Afghanistan and elsewhere in which the visual identification of a “target” through drone technology proved catastrophically wrong. Such past mistakes have raised the bar on the level of transparency and public accountability required. The ‘trust us’ approach is no longer good enough where drones are involved.” 

Quite. Interestingly, the Labour MP Madeleine Moon, who is on the Commons defence select committee, also said: “Greater priority must be given to ensure those killed in drone attacks are not innocent civilians. Current figures coming out of the Ministry of Defence do not indicate that the level of scrutiny needed is in place. It is imperative that steps are put in place, not only to protect innocent civilians, but demonstrate that have done so.”

In stark contrast to this suggestion, the MoD have written to me (letter here) saying they will no longer answer my Freedom of Information requests on the use of UAVs in Afghanistan “until at least the end of operations in Afghanistan.”  Needless to say I have appealed (letter here) and will continue to demand more transparency and public accountability on the use of  British drones.