Defence Investment Plan – Drone Wars UK

While drone warfare continues to rapidly develop and evolve, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has revealed in an FoI response to Drone Wars UK that the UK has received just nine of the 16 Protector drones ordered from US company General Atomics a decade ago.

Originally announced by David Cameron in 2015, the UK ordered 16 of the upgraded version of the Reaper drone in 2016 (with an option to buy ten more).

RAF Protector RG1 on training flight in UK. Credit: MoD.

Called SkyGuardian by the manufacturer and other users, the drone has been renamed ‘Protector’ by the MoD in an apparent crude attempt to manage public concerns about drone warfare. The whole life cost of the 16 drones was initially put at £704m, but by mid-2025 this had risen to £1.46bn. It has no doubt risen since.

The UK’s procurement of the ill-fated Watchkeeper drone – where the British Army spent over £1bn for a drone that saw almost no service and regularly crashed – was a textbook example of poor UK procurement. Ahead of the publication of the Defence Investment Plan (DIP), which we are told will commit billions more on drones and AI warfare, the Protector programme shows that the UK is as bad as ever at procuring these systems.

Missing Milestones

Slated to be in service in the early 2020s, the first Protector drones arrived in the UK in 2024 for testing and training, and a year later, in June 2025, the RAF announced that four Protector drones had entered service with the RAF. However, although ‘in service’, the MoD admitted that Protector had not yet reached ‘Initial Operational Capability’(IOC) and the FoI response shows this remains the case:

“Protector RG Mk1 has yet to reach all Initial Operating Capability (IOC) programme milestones. These milestones are currently under review, and a revised IOC date is expected post release of the Defence Investment Plan. However, Protector has already deployed on operations and is providing valuable Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance support on Operation SHADER.

Failure to reach Initial Operational Capability is likely to do with the number of drones in operation, the number of crews currently trained to operate them and/or the fact that it has not yet been approved to launch munitions (see below). In response to a parliamentary written question in February which sought details of the number of drones needed to be flying for it to pass that IOC milestone, MoD Minister Luke Pollard refused to answer, stating that

“The milestone is clearly defined and the Ministry of Defence is working to ensure the necessary supporting requirements are in place so that it can be met at the earliest opportunity.”

According to the new FoI response, however, the milestones are “currently under review” giving the impression that goalposts may well be moved.

Protector now flying ‘in the Middle East’

In September 2025, the MoD announced that the UK’s MQ-9 Reaper had been withdrawn from service after more than18 years of operations, firstly against the Taliban in Afghanistan (2007-2014) and then ISIS in Iraq and Syria (2014-2025).

In October 2025, two RAF Protector MQ-9B were spotted on flight tracking sites flying from RAF Akrotiri over the Mediterranean on apparent training exercise. This was the first overseas deployment of the new drone. Several weeks later the drones were then spotted flying over Israel and Jordan, apparently on their way to Syria as part of Operation Shader, taking over the role that Reaper had previously undertaken in that never-ending operation.

RAF Protector RG1 flight on May 28 2026. (Transponder is turned off for flight within Syria.)

On 1 March 2026, two days after the US and Israel began attacking Iran, a small drone struck RAF Akrotiri. Following the suggestion that the drone had originated from Lebanon, it was reported that the RAF’s Protector drones were patrolling off the coast of Lebanon to warn of any further incoming drones attacks. The Protector drones were, however, unable to ‘protect’ by shoot down any incoming drones or missiles as they had yet to be cleared to carry weapons. Subsequently, the drones been spotted flying over Lebanon transiting to Syria.

While the UK’s Reapers were known to be based in Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait for Operation Shader (although this was never officially acknowledged), the UK’s Protector drones appear now to be based at RAF Akrotiri for these operations. The FoI response states that the UK’s nine Protector drones “are currently split between RAF Waddington and the RAF forward operating location for Operation SHADER.” RAF Akrotiri is obviously closer to Syria than Kuwait, where the UK steadfastly engages in military operations against ISIS.

Unarmed Protectors

The FoI response also confirms that the Protector drones have still not yet been authorised to carry munitions and are restricted to “intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance support”.

While the exact reason for this remains unclear due to secrecy, MoD attempts to put in place changes to allow drones to conduct bombing training runs at the Holbeach bombing range near RAF Waddington have run into problems apparently due to the on-going risk of using lasers to guide the bombs.

Recently published documents on the Civil Aviation Authority’s website appears to show little progress being made.

Revealed: What became of the Reaper

Finally, the FoI response reveals what became of the UK’s Reaper drones. There had been speculation that the drones would be handed over to Ukraine for use in the ongoing conflict with Russia. While initially the MoD would only say that the drones were no longer in service and had been disposed of, the FoI response gave some more details:

When taken out of service the air vehicles were deregistered, de-militarised and dismantled into their ground transportation packing cases and were handed over for disposal by the contractor GA-ASI. One deregistered and de-militarised Reaper has been returned to the UK and is held in storage by the RAF in its packing case while it is considered for future preservation in a museum.

Rather than good money after bad…

The government strongly argues that we need to spend ever increasing amounts on ‘defence’. In 2020/21 UK military spending was £42.4bn but by 2024/25 had increased to £60.2bn (around 2.4% of GDP). In February 2025 Starmer committed to further increase military spending by around an extra £6bn per year – roughly the amount he cut from the UK’s Aid budget – with ‘an ambition’ to reach 3% by the next parliament. Just months later, at the NATO summit in June 2025, he upped the ante, with a pledge to reach a ‘goal’ of 5%, estimated to be an extra £30bn per year.

Drone Wars UK fundamentally disagrees with the concept of military security arguing that we should instead be investing in human and sustainable security. Rather than divide the world into ‘us’ and ‘them’ – good states and bad states – we need to focus on building global co-operation and common security and accept that no state can be truly secure unless all feel secure.

Rather than cutting our diplomatic and aid infrastructures, we should be investing much more in diplomacy, aid and conflict prevention structures. Rather than squandering billions on new weapons technology we should be investing in health and social care; investing in greening the economy and tackling climate change.

Many will no doubt suggest this is naïve, the record of UK drone development and procurement programmes – on which the UK has spend vast sums and in which it is placing its security – is littered with failures from Telemos to Watchkeeper to Taranis to Mosquito and many others.

As the UK’s Protector drone programme limps into service and while the UK is about to spend yet more vast sums on drone and AI warfare, is it not time to try something else?

Following the government’s commitment to increase military spending and the publication of the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) in early June, the military industry has been keenly awaiting the release of the government’s Defence Investment Plan (DIP) which will layout military spending plans and other details for the rest of this parliament. Numerous reports have indicated that many planned projects are ‘on hold’ until the plan is finalised and published.

UK Military Spending 2010/11 – 2024/25 – Statista

Defence minister Luke Pollard told MPs in June that the DIP will “cover the full scope of the defence programme, from people and operations to equipment and infrastructure”. Time and again ministers have promised that the plan will be unveiled in the autumn and so this now seems likely to be soon after the Budget of 26 November (although such promises are of course routinely broken).

How much?!

UK military spending was £60.2bn in 24/25 (around 2.4% of GDP), up from £42.4bn in 2020/21. In February 2025, the Starmer government committed to further increase military spending raising the budget to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 (estimated at around an extra £6bn per year – roughly the amount cut from the UK’s Aid budget) with ‘an ambition’ to reach 3% by the next parliament. At the NATO summit in June 2025, however, Starmer upped the ante, with a pledge to reach a ‘goal’ of 5% (3.5% on ‘core defence’ (estimated to be an extra £30bn per year) with 1.5% (around £40bn per year) on ‘defence-related areas such as resilience and security’) by 2029. Subsequently the government said it “expected to reach at least 4.1% of GDP in 2027”.

‘Whole of Society’

Importantly, alongside the increase in military spending, the Strategic Defence Review argued that ‘defence’ is now to be seen as a ‘whole of society’ effort and this may well be re-emphasised when DIP is published.

The plan is being billed as enabling the UK to be at ‘warfighting readiness’ and alongside equipment and weapons programmes, the public is being urged to be ”prepared for conflict and ready to volunteer, support the military, and endure challenges”.

Plans already announced to ‘reconnect society with the military’ include the expansion of youth cadet forces, education work in schools to develop understanding among young people of the armed forces, and broader public outreach events to outline the threats and the need for greater military spending despite increased social challenges.

Government keen to ‘reconnect’ young people with the armed forces

And to top this off, the government is deploying the hoary old chestnut that military spending is good for the economy (despite such claims being persistently and thoroughly debunked).

Trailed Plans

While specific spending details remain under wraps, government announcements since the publication of the SDR have indicated some of the broad areas which will receive more funding:

Drones, Drones, Drones. In the Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves stated that “a minimum of 10% of the MoD’s equipment budget is to be spent on novel technologies including drones and AI enabled technology.” Defence Minister Alistair Cairns indicated in July that there would be around £4bn spending on uncrewed systems – ‘Drones, drones and drones‘ as he put it on twitter.

To the ever-expanding list of UK drone development programmes, many of which are seeking funding decisions as part of the DIP, we can add Project Nyx which seeks to pair a new drone with the British Army’s Apache Helicopter.

Perhaps most significantly in this area, publication of the Defence Investment Plan may illuminate UK plans for a ‘loyal wingman’ type drone – now described by the MoD as an Autonomous Collaborative Platform (ACP) – to accompany the UK’s planned new fighter aircraft, Tempest. While some funding has already been allocated to develop smaller Tier 1 and 2 ACP’s, plans for the more strategic and no doubt costlier level Tier 3 drone have been placed on the back burner pending funding decisions. Will the UK go it alone and build a new armed drone (as no doubt BAE Systems hopes) or will it buy Australia’s Ghost Bat or one of the two drones currently competing for the US contract?

Integrated targeting web. Alongside new drones, the UK is developing a ‘digital targeting web’ to link, as MoD-speak puts it, ‘sensors’, ‘deciders’ and ‘effectors’. In other words commanders supported by AI will be networked with ‘next generation’ drones, satellites and other systems to identify targets to be destroyed by a variety of novel and traditional military systems. The aim is to rapidly speed up the time between target identification and attack. As Drone Wars has reported, several tests of various elements of this system (such as ASGARD) have been tested and it is likely that further funding for this programme will be part of the DIP.

New munition and drone factories. The government is keen to bolster the UK’s munitions stocks after supplying huge amounts to Ukraine. The MoD accidentally released details of 12 potential sites for new munitions factories to The Ferret in a Freedom of Information mix-up. The government has plans to open 6 new factories at a cost of £6bn,

Alongside this, there is also a desire to persuade some of the newer drone companies to open factories here in the UK. While Tekever has announced it will open a new site in Swindon, Anduril and Helsing seem to be keeping their power dry while awaiting news that they have secured government contracts before committing to setting up premises. Both companies have, however, set up UK subsidiaries and have launched PR campaigns to persuade ministers and officials of the efficacy of their products.

While drones are key for these companies, a huge increase in UK spending on military AI systems is also in their sights.

An AI ‘Manhattan Project’ endeavour. Despite continued and significant concerns about the military use of AI, particularly in ‘the kill chain’, ministers, officials and commanders seem convinced that a rapid integration of AI into all areas of the armed forces is urgent and vital. Just before stepping down as Chief of the Defence Staff in September, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin put his weight behind calls from Helsing co-founder Gundbert Scherf for a “Manhattan-Project for AI defence”. Arguing such a plan “would not cost the earth” (but putting it at around $90bn!) Scherf suggested four areas to concentrate on: a) masses of AI-enabled defensive drones deployed on NATO’s eastern flank; b) deploying AI-enabled combat drones to dominate airspace; c) large scale deployment of ai-enabled underwater drones/sensors; and finally, d) replacing Europe’s ageing satellites with (you guessed it) ai-enabled surveillance and targeting satellites.

Anduril is also not shy of lobbying in its own interests. Anduril UK CEO Richard Drake told The House, Parliament’s in-house magazine, that Anduril US was “very much happy with the direction [the SDR is] taking” but went on to publicly push to reduce regulation on the use of drones in UK airspace:

“For UK PLC to get better and better and better in drones and autonomous systems, they have to always look at their regulatory rules as well. Companies like ours and other UK companies can design and build these really cool things, but if we can’t test them well enough in the UK, that’s going to be a problem.”

Winners and Losers

While wholesale adoption of Helsing’s plan seems unlikely, there seems little doubt that the new AI-focused military companies will be among the various military companies who will be the lucky beneficiaries of the UK’s DIP. Meanwhile, the rest of us seem assured of spending cuts and tax rises.

Tag: Defence Investment Plan

Long delays, cost overruns and as yet unable to carry munitions, the Protector drone shows the UK is as bad at military procurement as ever.