MALE performance anxiety: Technical problems and SAMs bring large drones down to earth

MQ-9 downed in Yemen, May 2024

We’ve added details of 25 more crashes of medium altitude long endurance (MALE) drones to our database since the last update in November 2023 – including details of three US drone crashes in 2023 that have only recently come to light.

Although the use of smaller ‘one-way attack’ drones has grown in prevalence alongside a huge rise in  the use of FPV drones in Ukraine, the larger MALE drones – as typified by the Reaper and Bayraktar – continue to be a mainstay for many militaries.  While many of the crashes of these systems are due to pilot error, mechanical/electrical failures or other technical problems, we have seen an increase in the number of these aircraft being shot down over the past year.

While it has been widely accepted over recent years that the current generation of MALE drones “are vulnerable in warfighting conflicts involving peer or near-peer adversary” as the MoD’s most recent strategy document on the issue put it (and hence arguing to “go beyond RPAS” to develop autonomous drones),  we have actually seen a significant number of these drones brought down to earth by non-state groups such as the Houthis and Hezbollah over recent months.

MALE drones recently shot down by Ansar Allah (Houthis)*
Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location
May 29, 2024 US intelligence? MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Marib Province, Yemen
May 16, 2024 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Marib province, Yemen
Apr 26, 2024 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Off coast of Yemen
Feb 19, 2024 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Off coast of Yemen
Nov 8, 2023 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Off coast of Yemen

*Note other downings have been claimed but not verified

MALE drones recently shot down by Hezbollah  
Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location
Jun 10, 2024 IDF Hermes 900 Mid-flight, shot down Southern Lebanon
Jun 1, 2024 IDF Hermes 900 Mid-flight, shot down Southern Lebanon
Apr 22,2024 IDF Hermes 450 Mid-flight, shot down Southern Lebanon
Apr 6, 2024 IDF Hermes 900 Mid-flight, shot down Lebanon
Feb, 26, 2024 IDF Hermes 450 Mid-flight, shot down Nabatieh, Lebanon
Nov 5, 2023 IDF Hermes 450 Mid-flight, shot down Nabatieh, Lebanon
MALE drones brought down by other non-state groups/States
Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location
Apr 29, 2024 UAE Wing Loong Mid-flight, shot down Shabwah, Yemen
Jan 18, 2024 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight, shot down Diyala Province, Iraq
Oct 5, 2023 Turkish Air Force Anka-S Mid-flight, shot down Hasakah, Syria,

Alongside the fact that these drones are increasing vulnerable to ground launch missile attacks, there continues to be a significant amount of crashes due to technical issues or pilot error.

Down to earth with a bang: (clockwise from top left) USAF Reaper, New Mexico; Bayraktar TB2, Ethiopia; Mohajer-6, Russia; Aksungur, Northern Iraq.
Other crashes: Technical failure or pilot error
Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location
May 8, 2024 Brazilian Air Force Hermes 900 Mid-flight Brazil
Mar 18, 2024 Indian Navy Searcher Mid-flight Kochi, India
Mar 17, 2024 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Poland
Jan 21, 2024 IDF Heron 1 Take-off Central Israel
Jan 6, 2024 Sudan Forces Mohajer 6 Mid-flight Khartoum, Sudan
Nov 18,2023 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Off coast Somaliland
Nov 12. 2023 Turkey Navy Aksungur Mid-flight Northern Iraq
Oct 12, 2023 Frontex Heron 1 Landing phase Malta airport
Sep 18, 2023 Iran ? Mid-flight Gorgon, Iran
Sep 5, 2023 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing phase New Mexico, US
Aug 24, 2023 Frontex Heron 1 Mid-flight Off-coast Crete
Aug 22, 2023 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing Kanoya Air Base, Japan

US Reaper drones have crashed recently in Poland, off Somaliland, New Mexico and Japan over recent months, while India, Brazil, Israel, Iran, Turkey and Sudan have also seen their MALE drones crash recently, while the European border agency, Frontex has also seen two of its large drones crash.  Details of the all crashes are in our Drone Crash Database.

UK safety concerns

We continue to be concerned about plans to allow the UK’s new Protector MALE drone to fly in UK airspace.  The RAF undertook a short series of ‘time critical proving flights‘ over RAF Waddington in October 2023, and a longer programme of test and training flights were due to begin in early 2024.  These have clearly been delayed.   From the data on drone crashes, we can see that a significant amount of problems arise in the take-off and landing phase.  RAF Waddington, from where these test and training flights will be conducted, is surrounded by homes, shops, businesses and a school.  A number of locals expressed great concern about this in response to a CAA consultation exercise.

RAF Waddington, Lincoln. Flights of UK’s MALE ‘Protector’ drone due to begin soon.

Meanwhile, the US Air Force has applied to the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA)  to fly Global Hawk and/or Reaper drones from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire. This will mean that these large drones will undertake remotely controlled sorties through one of the busiest air corridors in the UK.

The government asserts  that there is an economic and security case for opening up UK skies to MALE drones.  The CAA as airspace regulator argues that it is bound to abide by government policy. The number of crashes and accidents of these systems should, however, give real pause for thought.

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