Following on from the MoD’s Defence Drone Strategy released in February (see our report here), the RAF has now published its ‘Autonomous Collaborative Platform Strategy’ as it works to develop, produce and deploy these new type of military drones.
The strategy defines Autonomous Collaborative Platform (ACP) as types of uncrewed systems (drones) “which demonstrate autonomous behaviour and are able to operate in collaborative manner with other assets.” The strategy argues that Reaper and the (soon-to-enter-service) Protector drones “are vulnerable in warfighting conflicts involving peer or near-peer adversary. Therefore, as a priority the RAF needs to go beyond RPAS [Remotely Piloted Air Systems] to develop ACP capabilities.”
The plan argues that “through increasing use of autonomy, remote mission operators (commanders /supervisors) will be able to command an increasing number of AV [drones] within each ACP system.”
Underpinning the development, is the notion that the “geopolitical climate demands that we move beyond the caution of the post-cold war world” and that therefore the RAF must “undertake activity in areas that are demanding, difficult or overtly hostile.” While the Strategy sets out a variety of tasks for these new drones, it makes clear that a key focus is on “overwhelming an adversary’s air defences.” ACP are therefore not a defensive system, but are designed from the outset to enable the UK to engage in attack.
Tiers for Fears
The strategy sets out three ‘Tiers’ of ACP based on their ability to survive in “high-risk” (i.e. defended) environments:
- Tier 1 ae disposable drones, with life-cycle of one or very few missions;
- Tier 2 are “attritable” (or “risk tolerant”) that is, expected to survive but losses are acceptable;
- Tier 3 are drones which have high strategic value, which if lost would significantly affect how the RAF will fight.
Echoing the words of the Chief of the Air Staff Sir Richard Knighton before the Defence Select Committee earlier this year, the document states that a Tier 1 ACP will be operational “by the end of 2024”, while Tier 2 systems will be part of RAF combat force by 2030.
Knighton also emphasised at the launch of the strategy that the armed forces must be less risk-averse. “To deliver the pace of change needed for operational relevance in a future fight, we will need to do less testing and live with lower standards of performance and quality,” he said. “By their nature, high-risk operations carry higher risks . . . so we will be—in fact, must be—prepared to tolerate higher levels of operating risk to achieve mission success.”
The higher end (Tier 3) drones are likely to be developed and built in conjunction with allies – as we have previously written – and it will be surprising if Boeing’s Ghost Bat drone is not under consideration. However as the strategy document makes clear, the UK’s initial focus will be around Tier 1/Tier 2 drones. Based on “current operational context” (i.e. Ukraine) the document states that the RAF has developed “niche solutions in the Tier 1 category which are capable of delivering bespoke effects in operational theatres now.” Little detail of the initial Tier 1 drones under development has been released other than a brief mention of the name ‘AUKLET’ and ‘Banshee’. Banshee is the name of a decades old naval target drone that has recently been updated and, according to some reports, adapted as a ‘one-way attack’ drone by Ukrainian forces.
Meanwhile, BAE Systems have been quick to promote its ACP concept aimed at Tier 2 simply called ‘Concept 2’. The company says it aims to have the drone flying by the end of 2025/early 2026.
All of this will, of course, take further funding and, as that document discreetly puts it, “the exact level of resource to be allocated is yet to be defined” Funding decisions appear then to be left to the next Integrated Defence and Security Review likely to be held in the wake of the summer General Election.
US developments
Across the Atlantic, the US is also developing similar systems but on a larger scale and with the slightly different nomenclature – ‘Collaborative Combat Aircraft'(CCA) rather than the UK’s ‘Autonomous Collaborative Platforms’ (ACP).
The US has a planning assumption of producing an initial 1,000 CCA with different capabilities. In April 2024, the US Air Force awarded contracts to develop the ‘first increment’ of CCAs to General Atomics and Anduril Industries. While details are again scare, its thought that General Atomics’ CCA development is based around the XQ-67A or ‘Off-Board Sensing Station‘ while Anduril’s will be based around Fury, which it acquired in a recent takeover.
Alongside these larger future autonomous drone development, the US is also funding a separate programme called ‘Replicator’ to “field attritable autonomous systems at scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18-to-24 months.” Specific details of what drones will be developed under this programme have yet to be revealed.
Pandora’s Box
The development of autonomous drones – both armed and unarmed – is rapidly outpacing discussions in the international community around the need to control these systems. We are quickly approaching a point where once these systems begin to be deployed, it will be difficult, if not impossible to put them back in the box.
Last autumn the UN Secretary General António Guterres and ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric issued a joint call for UN member states to negotiate a new international treaty by 2026 to ban lethal autonomous weapons systems but progress is slow. Drone Wars UK echoes the recent plea of the International Stop Killer Robots Campaign:
“Stop Killer Robots’ implores the international community to recognise that we are at a crucial moment in history, where we must work together to limit the use of autonomy in weapons systems. Ongoing conflicts demonstrate the urgency and need for new legal rules and limits. This is a moment in time where we can make a difference that will affect all of us and the generations to come. However, it is crucial we act now.”